MicroPakistan

Pakistan’s born-again democracy will fail. Musharraf will be proved right that Pakistan does, after all need ‘unity of command’. The worst of the skeptics will say “Pakistan is a failing state with or without Military rule but more slowly with than without”. Pakistan’s elite that consists of majority of Army’s brass, its bureaucracy, its multi-national technocrats and its feudals will once again be singing paeans to a smartly-uniformed general who speaks in clipped tones. And they will be spitting venom in their living rooms on Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari - those no-good politicians who are taking the country down the garbage chute.

This, of course, has not happened yet but is quite likely to happen.

Everything that has sustained 33-years of military rule remains in place: a powerful military, strong ubiquitous web of intelligence agencies, weak civilian institutions, rampant societal corruption, deeply-entrenched feudalism, a thoroughly disillussioned populace and faltering economy. Only two things are missing for the moment: masses who are angry with those about to come to power and the will of the army to rule. Masses as of this very second are hopeful and the military desperately needs time to regroup and re-energize by polishing its image and paying attention to building its badly eroded professionalism. How long will it be before these ingredients also get thrown in the pot?

That, of course, depends on what follows.

Advice for the Political Parties:

1. You must get the sequence of how you act right. That is the million-dollar challenge. Remember that all the ‘orange revolutions’ and like have failed because they followed a populist path rather than a hard-nosed one. What should be that sequence:

(a) First, get the principles of coalition clearly spelled out. What are the major demands, the musts, as they say, of each party. For instance: ANP has said: (i) Must form government in NWFP (ii) Must change name of the province to “Pakhunkhwa” and (3) Must get provincial autonomy promised under the 1973 constitution. PML(N) has said: (i) Must restore judiciary (ii) Must remove President Musharraf. These need serious discussion.

(b) Must agree on general priorities of the new government. That is, on (i) fighting terrorism (ii) tackling economy and giving relief to people (iii) making key legal and constitutional changes. There will be a certain overlap here from ‘principles of coalition’ above. These too need serious discussion.

(b) Now negotiate on these principles and priorities with candor and in good-faith and sincerity. What you can not agree on immediately but want to sequence later, its time-frame and manner of resolution must be spelled out.

(c) Must have coalition partners agree as soon as possible on the candidate for Prime Minister and equitable portfolio assignments - based not just on party strength but also on competence.

(d) Must get new government voted in, installed and working.

2. You must set yourself the target of completing full five-years together and should be determined to eliminate all obstacles on this path. Set-up mechanism for dealing with and arbitrating differences when they arise. Copy what Musharraf achieved here. DO NOT LIVE AND ACT AS IF YOU BELIEVE THAT THE LIFE OF THIS ASSEMBLY WILL BE ONE YEAR OR SO AND DO NOT TRY TO SCORE POINTS OF YOUR COALITION PARTNERS. REMEMBER YOU ARE A TEAM! Follow the rules you wrote in the Charter of Democracy.

3. First order of business once a stable government is formed will be to discuss, debate and put to vote restoration of judiciary. Do this in a way that restores them but does not IMMEDIATELY threaten President Musharraf. You are the masters - you know how to achieve things like that. Let President Musharraf draw his own conclusion.

4. Agree amongst yourself that if President Musharraf has to go, he must go with full honors and dignity. That is necessary to fully complete the work of a peaceful transfer of power for the first time in the history of Pakistan. It is also necessary because someone who took off his uniform, who promulgated the ‘National Reconciliation Order”, who allowed ‘mother of all elections’ with full participation of his political opponents deserves something back from the nation. That is the sign of political maturity. Anger and emotion should play no part in this. Only what makes the state strong by inculcating precedents that strengthen democracy. Act now but think of eternity when thinking about the consequences of your action!

5. If later, individuals or civil rights organizations want to take legal action against a retired President Musharraf that process too should be allowed to proceed with dignity and according to law.

6. Remember if you want rule of political parties, you must have rule of law, you must strengthen yourself AND the political process. The latter by ensuring (i) completely free judiciary (ii) completely free and autonomous election commission and (iii) sovereignty of the parliament and (iv) NEVER using the police or intelligence agencies for political purposes or against political opponents and finally (v) those amongst you who cross these red lines must be punished with full force of law even if she/he is your friend or family member. Show character, something no one expects of you!

7. If you do not do this….you will hurt your most fundamental interests because you are anyway weak, have shallow roots amongst the people and your opponents are ten times stronger than you. You got voted in not because of hub-e-Ali but because of bughz-e-Maavia (not because people loved you but because they hated the incumbents).

Advice for the Army and Pakistan’s Authoritarian Elite:

1. You must know you failed miserably to rule every time you have tried. Under your rule Pakistan split in two. Under your rule Pakistan saw the rise of sectarianism and extremism that is tearing the country apart. Under your rule all of Pakistan’s institutions have been destroyed. Under your rule we have seen great alienation of smaller provinces. Under your supervision Pakistan became a rogue state by smuggling nuclear technology to other states. Under your rule the image and professionalism of the army has been badly damaged. Under your rule corruption has remained rampant and the army has become ‘too fat’. Under your rule the state of Pakistan has been immeasurably weakened. In other words, you have done much worse than the civilians you came to replace - they left the country with major problems but you left the country with hollowed-out foundations, a far greater crime! Who needs enemies with friends like you!

2. You must know that political parties will make mistakes. Maybe major mistakes. Give them the space and time to make mistakes. That is the only way they will learn.

3. There are only two ways to deal with mistakes made by politicians - court of law and court of public opinion. Let that be your guide. Coups don’t solve any problems. They perpetuate them.

4. If you want the state of Pakistan strengthened, strengthen Pakistan’s democracy. If you have to consider yourself bigger than your boots then consider yourself guardians of Pakistan’s democracy, the way Turkish army is guardian of its secular character.

“Great beginnings are not as important as the way one finishes.” Shaheryar Azhar