MicroPakistan

Guest post by Momina S.

Introduction

Water is an increasingly scarce resource. The distribution of water in an agricultural society is an explosive issue and explains the controversy surrounding the construction of the Kalabagh dam in Pakistan. This project has been ready for implementation since the 1980s but due to opposition from three of the four provinces in Pakistan, it has been put on standby. However, the current Musharraf regime, with its emphasis on ‘growth at any cost’, seems willing to push ahead with the construction of the Kalabagh dam.

This post will examine the issues surrounding the Kalabagh Dam, specifically the interplay between the federal and provincial governments regarding allocation of resources and will assess the likely positive and negative effects of building this dam. The purpose of this dam is to help Pakistan cope with its growing energy and food demand. However, at the cost of Rs 250 billion, concerns have been raised as to whether this will be money well spent. Furthermore, this development scheme has the potential of exacerbating provincial tensions. The issue of resource sharing is contentious because of the allocation of disproportionate cost and benefits amongst different provinces.

A symbol of Punjabi dominance

Pakistan is a federation of four provinces. Federalism was adopted as a system well suited to manage Pakistan’s plural and heterogeneous society. The key to a federal system is the division of power between the central government and the provincial government, within a framework of coordination and interdependence. The elected representatives of three provinces namely Sindh, NWFP and Balochistan have repeatedly passed resolutions against the construction of this dam .

Despite the fact that Pakistan’s constitutional framework was federal in form, the centre was provided with important legislative, administrative and financial powers, making it unitary in substance . The federal government in Pakistan has traditionally been dominated by military and civilian bureaucrats from Punjab . The power enjoyed by Punjabis has given Pakistan’s brand of centralization strong provincial overtones and has been a source of political discontent throughout the history of the nation. Especially as at the time of independence, provinces were promised considerable political autonomy, which has failed to be realized in practice.

Ethnic and regional demands are closely intertwined in Pakistan as each province has a different ethnic group forming the majority of the province. The federal government is perceived to work in the interests of the most populous and most fertile province, Punjab and continues to insist that the building of Kalabagh dam is in Pakistan’s best national interests as it would store water which could be used to increase agricultural and electrical supply. Sindh and NWFP have raised strong objections against this development scheme which they perceive as ‘water robbery’ by the powerful province of Punjab, under the guise of national interest.

Distrust of the federal government stems from precedents such as violations of the Indus Water Accord. This agreement was signed by all provinces, and it outlined the basis for sharing the shortages and surpluses of river water . However, during water shortages in 2000, the accord was violated and agricultural output in Sindh and NWFP was adversely affected due to mismanagement and mal-distribution of river water by the federal government.

In Pakistan, the domination of one region, Punjab, on the central government, has harmed the union of the federation . How real the resentment against the Punjabi domination is evident by the succession of Bangladesh in 1971 . One of the most significant grievances that the Bengalis had, was regarding resource allocation. There was a widespread perception that the export earnings of Jute exports produced in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) were used to fund investments in Punjab. Indeed two of the key demands by Mujib-ur-Rahman were that each of the federating units would have separate accounts to maintain foreign exchange earnings and the federal government should be responsible only for foreign affairs and defense . There have also been failed secession movements in other provinces, most notably in Balochistan which were brutally crushed by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto . Recently Baluchi nationalists have become more militant in opposing Punjabi exploitation of gas resources in Balochistan .

Kalabagh risks becoming a dangerous symbol of Punjabi dominance on the central government and a rallying point for separatist sentiments. The proposal for the building of the dam has sparked demonstrations and protests in the other three provinces. The current Musharraf government is planning to rename the Kalabagh dam, ‘the Pakistan dam’. But changing the cover of the book doesn’t change the content! If the lessons leading to the separation of East Pakistan are remembered, then the key to maintaining the unity of a federation is to address and accommodate the grievances of less powerful provinces at the national level.

Agricultural Consequences

Agriculture forms the backbone of Pakistan’s economy. At independence, Pakistan inherited the largest irrigation system in the world from the British .However, only 27% of Pakistan’s total geographic area is under cultivation . To cope with rising food and energy demands, proponents of the Kalabagh dam present the building of this mega dam, with multi-storage capacity, as the solution to Pakistan’s problems.

Pakistan is characterized as being arid to semi-arid and thereby dams play an important role in the agricultural sector as 80% of cultivated land relies on artificial irrigation.

However, there are provincial differences that are important to highlight as each province has different geographic features. Geography, shapes the natural resources of a region which in turn determines its income . Punjab has five rivers flowing through it, where as, Sindh only has one- the River Indus, on which the proposed dam is planning to be built. Disruption to the water supply from the sole river to the region will disproportionately affect agriculture in this province. Furthermore, the productivity of land is determined by soil quality and rainfall. Sindh has substantially less rainfall than Punjab, making the River Indus even more important.

The importance of agriculture can be presented from the following facts and figures, Pakistan has a population of 160million people which is growing at the rate of 2.6% yearly. The agriculture sector employs 46% of the employed labor force. However, the agriculture sector is a declining sector as its share of the GDP has decreased from 50% in 1947 to 24% in 1997 .

Supporters of the dam argue that the construction of Kalabagh dam, will allow Pakistan to feed its growing population by increasing food production. Pakistan’s yield per hectare is 0.81 ton and there is definite room for improvement as India’s yield per hectare is 0.91 tons while the world average is .087 tons . Yet, rather than building a dam, administrative measures such as streamlining supply of quality seeds and making fertilizers available at a more affordable rate can achieve the same increase in agricultural productivity at a fraction of the cost for constructing a new dam .

The increase in crop yield proposed by the building of Kalabagh dam is offset by the aggravated water-logging and salinity that would result directly from the building of the dam. Compared to other provinces, salinity is highest in Sindh, due to the north-south land gradient, land degradation would increase in Sindh which in turn actually reduces the crop production in the region. Furthermore, high yields in short run would be unsustainable in the long run because of water pollution and loss of fertility associated with it . De-silting the Tarbela dam would have the same effect in terms of irrigation but at one-seventh of the cost (in net present value) of the Kalabagh dam . Another alternative being proposed is to increase the storage capacity of existing dams such as Tabela dam. This can be achieved at 10% of the cost of building Kalabagh dam .

If agricultural productivity is hampered due to inadequate water accessibility than perhaps the emphasis should be on conserving water. Currently 60% of the water available at canal heads is lost through evaporation and seepage . Water utilization can be improved by using technology to line canals with cement or bricks and educating farmers.

Perhaps what is important to incorporate in the analysis of achieving food security is to view it as a demand driven problem rather than a supply constraint problem. Pakistan has one of the highest population growth rates in the world, making it imperative to focus on sustainable development. Shrinking the resource base for temporary increase in food production is certainly not the way forward.

Environmental and Social Concerns

The Kalabagh dam project also has important implications for the environment. A common argument in favor of building the dam is that water flowing into the sea is a waste. However, this approach fails to appreciate the role this water has to play in supporting the natural ecosystem such as mangrove forests which are home to a million species of birds, insects and fish. It is important to note that reduced water outflow through Sindh, will adversely affect the Indus delta ecosystem.

The survival of mangrove forests also has significant economic implications as they are a source of livelihood for 100,000 people living in coastal areas. They also are an important source of economic revenue, with Pakistan earning Rs 2.24 billion from fish exports and Rs 100 million from fuel wool, fodder and forest products in 1988 . If preserved, mangroves could also be a valuable source of tourist revenue. Furthermore, they serve the function of acting as a natural barrier to bank erosion and sea surges. To replace them with physical barriers such as walls would prove to be costly and have high maintenance costs. To preserve mangroves it is important to have constant fresh water outflows, this has already been on the decline because of previous dam building projects and a new dam would threaten the very existence of these mangroves.

Another argument for building large dams is that they are associated with reduction in flooding. However, recent historical evidence proves this to be a fallacious view, for after the building of Tarbela and Mangala dam, the severity of flood impact actually increased.

Community displacement is another negative consequence of large dam building projects. It marginalizes and impoverishes the local community dependent on the Indus water, destroying their way of life. Donor agencies facing negative publicity have increased pressure to increase the compensation to displaced persons. Responding to the pressure the Pakistani government has proposed the construction of village communities at a projected cost of Rs 20-25 Billion. However, these promises ring hollow considering the government’s costly defense and debt servicing obligations. Evidence after the construction of Tarbela and Managala dam show that the federal government has failed to adequately compensate displaced communities, with money usually channeled to powerful, vested interests instead.

Implications for Economic Development

As an industrializing country, Pakistan’s demand for energy is increasing rapidly. However, as far as the need for Kalabagh dam being the source of cheap hydro power, the construction of a thermal power plant of equivalent capacity as Kalabagh would cost less then one third of the cost of building the dam. More important the demand for electricity is growing at the rate of 12% and this should also be considered from a demand driven angle. Awareness of electricity conservation can be promoted by the government, as well as putting proper economic incentives for people to consume less electricity during peak seasons such as the summer.

There is a lag between economic growth and social development in Pakistan, which is reflected in health, education and fertility indicators relative to GDP per capita . Nationwide averages obscure the large variations in this lag across different provinces. According to some experts, ethnic diversity is a contributing factor for Pakistan’s relative social backwardness given its income level. For instance, Dani Rodrik argues that ‘polarized societies find it difficult to agree on what is a public good, and even if they compromise, each faction will value it less than would a citizen with more homogenous values’ .

From 1960-1998, Pakistan was the third largest recipient of official development assistance in the world. However, the emphasis of foreign donors is usually on GDP, as a measure of success rather than social progress . Therefore, funding is provided to build things supporting agriculture rather than invest in the social sector. However, in the long run, national cohesion and economic development are likely to be best served by investing in human capital. The construction of Kalabagh dam is especially likely to cause a major political backlash. Political instability tends to reduce investment which in turn adversely affects economic growth. Donor agencies such as the World Bank, fearing political unrest have put pressure on the Pakistani government to modify the project to satisfy provincial reservations. However, despite the modifications political opinion in three out of four provinces remains firmly against the building of the dam.

Role of Civil Society

Previous governments have failed to reach national consensus on the building of the Kalabagh dam. Dr Shareen Khan in her analysis of the Kalabagh Dam project has pointed out the ‘crisis of governance’ in which the decisions regarding dam building are highly centralized. No serious measures have been undertaken to address the grievances of the smaller provinces. Centralized decision making also leads to less accountability and less informed debate.

Pakistan has been under perpetual military rule for most of its existence but during the 1990s the civil society has become more vocal. This can be attributed to the opening up of limited democratic space during civilian rule in the 90s. Civilian rule was marked by the leadership of two prominent political figures, namely Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, who took opposing stances on the issue.

Benazir Bhutto was firmly against the building of the dam. Her position can be attributed to the fact that she herself belonged from Sindh, where she depended on important political constituencies. In direct contrast, Nawaz Sharif, who was generally considered more business friendly was in favor of building the dam. In his second term in power, he put the construction of Kalabagh dam on top of the national agenda.

However, he faced stiff opposition from regional parties such as the Awani National Party (ANP).

The implications for the current regime is that it should not make a unilateral decision on this issue and has to pay more careful attention to public opinion than previous military regimes. Thereby, cosmetic changes such as changing the name to appease public apprehension are not likely to impress opponents of the dam. With such a vocal civil society it is paramount to have broad based stakeholder consultations.

Conclusion

The construction of Kalabagh dam has far reaching economic, political and social ramifications. I have presented the arguments in favor and against the building of the Kalabagh dam. In particular, I have analyzed the agricultural consequences of building the dam and presented empirical evidence that Kalabagh dam will not generate significant agricultural production to merit the cost. Viable alternatives which are more environmentally friendly exist, such as to increase food production by increasing storage capacity of existing dams, conserving water and so forth.

Power generation is a demand driven problem as well as a supply constraint problem. Pakistan like most developing countries, faces the dilemma of choosing short term economic growth at the cost of irreparable environmental damage. Environmental damage caused by Kalabagh is extensive and the water wastage argument should be analyzed in the context of the harm to mangrove forests. In this paper I have also analyzed the concerns and anxieties of all the actors involved such as displaced people, the provinces and the central government. More importantly, I have analyzed how the political fallout from such a project would harm the credibility of the federal system and create dissatisfaction amongst smaller provinces ultimately threatening the very union of the federation. The way forward is to engage in public dialogue over the issue and respect the wishes of all provinces to reach national consensus.

BIBLIOGRAPHY:
Baxter, Craig. Excerpt from ‘A Province of Pakistan.’ Bangladesh: A New Nation in an Old Setting. Boulder, CL: Westview Press, 1984.

BBC NEWS, Jan 2005.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4182151.stm

Chadda, Maya. Building Democracy in South Asia. Lynne Rienner Publisher Inc, 2000.

Eckholm, Erik. A Province Is Dying of Thirst, and Cries Robbery, New York Times, 2003http://www.sanalist.org/NYTIMES.htm

Ercelawn, Aly and Muhammad Nauman,Damming Kalabagh Political Economy,
The News June 21 1998

Government of Pakistan, Kalabagh Dam Project
www.infopak.gov.pk/public/Kalabagh_Dam.htm

Hussain Kazi, Abrar. Kalabagh dam: the other view, 14th January 2000 http://www.sanalist.org/kalabagh/a-9.htm

Hussain Shah, Syed Mujawar. Federalism in Pakistan, Theory and Practice,1994

Jalal, Ayesha. ‘State Formation and the Political Process in India and Pakistan, 1947 t0 1971’. Democracy and Authoritarianism in South Asia. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1995

Jang Newspaper articles
http://www.jang.com.pk/thenews/spedition/kalabagh/1.htm

Kharif 2000 River Water, Distribution and Management December 2000 (Online Journal)http://www.sanalist.org/kharif2000riverwater.htm

M.A.Quaddus and M.A.B Siddique, Handbook of Sustainable Development Planning, Hassan Qudrat-Ullah, Resources, pollution and sustainable energy policies: the case of Pakistan, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 2004

Noman,Omar. ‘1947-58’….The Disenchantment with Freedom’ and excerpts from ‘Military Rule and Civil War’ Pakistan: Political and Economic History since 1947. New York:Keagan Paul International, 1990.

Palijo, Sassui. Question of Life and Death, (Online Journal)
http://www.sanalist.org/kalabagh/a-12.htm

Rafi Khan, Dr. Shaheen. The Kalabagh Controversy http://www.sanalist.org/kalabagh/a-14.htm

Rodrik, Dani.In Search of Prosperity, Princeton University Press, 2003.

Rizvi, Shamim Ahmed. Kalabagh Dam: Handle with care, May 29 - June 04,2000, Pakistan Economisthttp://www.sanalist.org/kalabagh/a-6.htm

Social Enterprise Development Programme http://sedc.org.pk/portal/general/theme_desc.php?themeid=0